Luck. Fantasy football is all about luck. Good luck, bad luck and of course no luck at all. We’re going to talk about all three of these “lucks” this week in relation to a couple of my friends’ fantasy situations this year. I assure you, it’ll be more fun than that dancin’ fellow who interrupted Lady Antebellum’s live online concert Tuesday night.
I found myself this Monday afternoon sitting at a picnic table on the deck of my favorite pub with a friend discussing fantasy football. We do it pretty much every week (if not Monday, then Tuesday). As usual, we were bouncing around our strategies for winning in Week 5. As natural as George Strait’s cowboy hat, or Brantley Gilbert’s wallet chain, the topic of our individual battle wounds from Week 4 arose. One of his non-money league teams was staring down at an 0-4 start. It happens to the best of us. He then explained that through the first four weeks his team has put up the SECOND most points in his league. That, my friends, is the definition of fantasy football bad luck. Basically, his team has put up awesome numbers each week, but he somehow keeps getting edged out. That’s frustrating, but all too common. Just eyeballing my main league the three teams atop the standings at 3-1 all have lower point totals than two of the five 2-2 teams. It’s obviously too early to start thinking about the playoffs, but I’d bet that in my league, and in many of your leagues, there will be a team who makes the playoffs with a dramatically lower point total than teams that miss the playoffs. That’s bad luck for those who missed the playoffs and dumb luck for those who made it.
No Luck At All
Not all leagues are created equal. Here at The Hoedown I usually keep the talk to standard scoring leagues, with an occasional reference to Point Per Reception leagues. A friend of mine is in a very unusual league. There’s no bench so during bye weeks you need to decide if you want to take a zero or drop a player you would never consider letting go in a regular league. You start two quarterbacks each week and their points are weighted more heavily than position players (defenses in this league typically are your second highest scorers). My friend drafted very well, especially when he secured two great fantasy quarterbacks in Tony Romo and Drew Brees. He drafted a should’ve been sure thing running back Frank Gore and worked the waiver wire to get Donald Brown. He also drafted Jason Witten, Julio Jones and has Green Bay’s defense. This team on paper was stacked. It is also 0-4. Why? No luck at all. When Romo has been great, Brees faltered (and vice versa). Last week Gore went off, Brown did not. I keep telling him don’t panic and stick with this squad, once they all get on the same page they’ll be even better than Kenny Chesney’s new album (which is awesome by the way).
Coming into Monday night’s Patriots/Chiefs game, my Takin’ Bills squad had 100 points. In standard scoring leagues 100 points should pretty much guarantee you a victory. Well, I was down by 25 points with one player to go…Jamaal Charles. The same Jamaal Charles who was my No. 1 pick and who also gained 19 yards in Week 1 and 4 yards in Week 2 (a game in which he was injured and subsequently missed Week 3). Needless to say, I was feeling woozier than that drunk guy at the Luke Bryan concert. Thankfully, Charles went off for 108 rushing and receiving yards and 3 touchdowns. I won by 4 points. That’s not lucky though. Where I got lucky was not giving up on Frank Gore who earned me 23 points and pulling the trigger on starting Reggie Wayne (to replace A.J. Green) who got “Lucked” into 7 passes thrown his way for 119 yards and a touchdown. Here’s hoping I can get lucky again next week where I have no bye week issues.
Bye Week of Snooze
There are only two teams with a bye this week, the middle-of-the-pack Miami Dolphins and the dismal Oakland Raiders. There’s really not a lot of fantasy impact here. It shouldn’t be hard to replace Ryan Tannehill, Lamar Miller, Mike Wallace, Caleb Sturgis, James Jones and Sebastian Janikowski if you are somehow saddled with these players. To be honest, with the exceptions of Wallace and Miller, you really shouldn’t have any of these guys on your team, unless you’re striving for mediocrity.
That’s all for this week. Good luck in Week 5. Need fantasy advice or have questions? Feel free to hit me up @sneezeguard.